April bull market? Bitcoin has just achieved its best March and first-quarter results in eight years

No Signs of Bear Market in Bitcoin This Year as Q1 Breaks Records — Can Q2 Meet Expectations?

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Price: $106,758

Due to the failure of the March 15 promotional event, the company experienced its most successful first quarter in eight years.

Data from analytics platform Bybt, released at the end of Q1 2021, showed that BTC/USD saw greater gains in the first three months of the year than in any other year since 2013.

Bitcoin Surged 103% in Q1

Despite failing to reclaim its all-time high before the start of Q2, Bitcoin had an unusually strong March—typically, that month sees negative returns.

BTC/USD Monthly Return Chart. Source: Bybt

Not only did the leading cryptocurrency rise nearly 30% in March alone, but it also hit an all-time high of $61,700.

Looking at the broader picture, every month in Q1 2021 closed in the green, with the total quarterly gain reaching 103.1%. The last time a higher Q1 return was recorded was in 2013, when Bitcoin traded below $100 and posted a 539% gain for the quarter.

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BTC/USD 1-Month Candlestick Chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Expectations for the coming months are heating up. Historically, Q2 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, with only two years of negative returns—and both were under 10%. In 2019, Bitcoin far exceeded expectations, delivering a 159% return in Q2, making it the best second quarter since 2013.

Staying on Track

A simple look at raw return data suggests that Bitcoin is performing exactly as expected in the year following a block subsidy halving—which is typically the strongest year in each four-year halving cycle.

Moreover, comparing the current cycle with previous ones (specifically 2021 against 2013 and 2017) shows that despite hitting all-time highs, Bitcoin hasn’t actually behaved abnormally.

Quantitative analyst PlanB uploaded the latest version of his chart showing post-halving price trends, dispelling concerns that BTC/USD had risen too quickly in recent months.

He summarized to his Twitter followers:
“Bitcoin is currently on track between the 2013 and 2017 trajectories.”

Bitcoin Price vs. Stock-to-Flow Model Post-Halving. Source: PlanB/Twitter

As reported by Cointelegraph, PlanB’s stock-to-flow (S2F) price model forecasts an average price of either $100,000 or $288,000 for this cycle, with the lower end now possibly appearing too conservative.